Citi is out of the gate early with analysis on the impact of Tesla's new pickup truck. Analyst Itay Michaeli says the firm's data suggests Ford (NYSE:F) has more headline risk than General Motors (NYSE:GM) from the buildup to the truck launch and eventual market share loss. Michaeli also notes that Ford generates more truck profit from the +$60K price level where Tesla's likely truck line will be focused as well. If Ford has a hedge in the EV truck game, it's through its investment in Rivian. The EV truck startup aims to have its own model for sale by the end of next year.
Wedbush's Dan Ives thinks the Cybertruck design was eye popping, but voices concern on the market size. "From a demand perspective this will be a more niche market, as we believe hitting the 150k/175k unit threshold in its first full year of deliveries (likely 2022) is the line in the sand out of the gates and could be a tough bogey to hit. For comparison, the leader in the market Ford sells roughly 1 million F-150 pickups per year. In a nutshell, we believe this next generation Cybertruck model could help Tesla expand its market opportunity outside its core customer base over time, although gaining market share with stalwarts such as Ford and GM entrenched in this landscape will be a difficult task for Fremont," writes Ives.
As for the Cybertruck reveal last night, Elon Musk said the Cybertruck will go from zero to 60 in about 2.9 seconds and tow up to 14K pounds. He also showed off a video where the truck beat an F-150 in a tug of war and outraced a Porsche 911 off the starting line. However, there was an embarrassing moment for Musk last night when he smashed the Cybertruck's windows when he was trying to show off how they were shatterproof.
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